Just a bit outside

Josh Reddick was the spark plug firebrand and Dirt Dog descendant that the Boston Red Sox missed from its mostly dispassionate crew. 

But Nick Punto’s playing 81 games in Fenway. Besides, Reddick was too young to make an impression on his teammates. 

He started out of necessity. J.D. Drew went down, for good (kinda) early into the season, so the Red Sox leaned on the rookie to take Drew’s place. 

He was OK for a stretch, before the law of averages started catching up to him. 

That doesn’t mean he’s a bad player. He’s stil just a rookie entering his sophomore year, and accounted for 1.9 bWAR, almost two wins above replacement level. 

In 2011 Reddick had slashes of .280 BA / .327 OBP / .457 SLG, with seven home runs and 18 doubles. His .335 wOBA suggests his bat is productive above the league average, although it’s unlikely that he’ll ever gain power beyond 12 home runs a year. Remember, he played in 87 games, and was getting more offensively and defensively exposed as he played more. His arm isn’t right field quality, and while he prevented 8.6 runs in the outfield, his glove wasn’t enough to compensate for what would be a career of league-average hitting. 

But Oakland needs him. He’ll be under club control until 2017, and won’t be arbitration eligible until 2014. Until then, Oakland gets cheap and league average production — better than outlaying cash on a sub-replacement level bust like Carl Crawford or Jayson Werth. Not that GM Billy Beane has the resources to go after free agents big and small, until the team moves to San Jose. 

Beane and the A’s are rebooting after failing to make a good run last year, when injuries decimated what would have been a very good pitching staff. Oakland has already converted two above average pitchers, Gio Gonzalez and Trevor Cahill, into seven prospects. Reddick adds a major league position player to that mix, and is a definite upgrade over Ryan Sweeney, who’s even weaker with his bat. 

Sweeney is a below-replacement level outfielder who’s only good at reaching base. His best season came in 2009, when he recorded a 4.2 fWAR, with a .293 BA / .348 OBP / .407 SLG / .330 wOBA in 134 games. He continued his regression in 2011, when he batted .265 BA / .346 OBP / .341 SLG / .303 wOBA, woefully below average with a bat that hurts more than it helps. He could be a platoon option against right handers, and could very well replace Darnell McDonald as the team’s fifth outfielder.

The Boston Red Sox upgraded its bullpen the cheap way, sending a replacement level, platoon-type outfielder for a two-time all star closer.

The Red Sox acquired closer Andrew Bailey from the Oakland A’s for outfielder Josh Reddick, straight up. Suddenly, one of the glaring weaknesses that led to the biggest September collapse in baseball history has been converted into a strength. 

Bailey, 27, is under club control until 2015, and will be arbitration eligible for the first time. He satisfies Boston’s desire to improve without busting the salary cap.  The 2009 rookie of the year is set to make about $2.5 million, about an $8 million discount from Jonathan Papelbon, who signed as a free agent with the Philadelphia Phillies in November.

While he has a reputation for being injury-prone, he threw 41 innings last year, Bailey is regarded as a semi-elite closer who could get better, if only he could get healthier. He posted ERA / WHIP / adjusted ERA of 3.24 / 1.104 / 126, all career highs. In his three-year career, he has lines of 2.07 / 0.954 / 226, and could be that pitcher again, if he stays healthy. 

It didn’t help that Oakland threw him out there for 83.1 innings in his rookie season, and injuries limited him to about 80 innings the past two seasons. If there’s a team that can keep him healthy, however, it’s Boston. The Red Sox took great care of Papelbon, never letting him go beyond 70 innings in his six years in Boston. Playing for a team with a great offense will also help him stay healthy, because he won’t be used as much as he was used in Oakland. 

But there’s some good news, too. His 8.9 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 is around his career averages, and his stuff appears to have not diminished. He’s also entering his peak years, cost-effective, and has a slightly higher career groundball rate than Jonathan Papelbon. Both are considered fly ball pitchers, however, with Bailey not as hard of a thrower as Papelbon, although the difference is minimal. He does rely on a sick cut fastball and carves out a curveball from time to time. 

His peripherals are also comparable to Papelbon’s, with a career 2.74 FIP and a 3.60 xFIP. What’s concerning is that his fly ball to home run ratio isn’t much of an improvement from Papelbon, despite playing in a pitcher friendly park. 

A relief pitcher’s performance is hard to predict, and Bailey has been on a downslide the past three seasons. But if you’re gambling on a reliever being a closer, Bailey and those like him, including Sergio Santos of the Toronto Blue Jays, are smart bets. 

He’s cost-effective, has got above average strikeout rates, and throws really, really hard. 

That’s all a team can ask for. 

Might as well Jump, Jump Jump, Might as well Jump (off a cliff). 

Michael Bowden made his big league return, displacing Scott Atchison and mopping up Game 1 of a double header against Oakland Saturday evening-ish. 

If Bowden pitches well enough, we might just forget that Matt Albers tried, and is failing, to replace El Guapo in Red Sox Nation lore. There is only one El Guapo, so far.

Hornswoggle Reddick blows out Jason Kipnis with a crotch shot.

Josh Reddick’s the opposite of J.D. Drew. Sliding to first base, almost getting his eye taken out. For first base.

And then you get Drew who refuses to swing at a fat one down the middle because, “it’s not my pitch.”

Unless Boston is building a package for Ubaldo or King Felix, Reddick should stay. Fuck Beltran.

All Star Carlos Beltran is as good as gone, and if initial reports are to be believed, the New York Mets are doing the right thing by offering to pay most of their sought-after outfielder’s remaining salary in exchange for better prospects.

Contenders, start lining ‘em up.

• The defending champions can dangle pitcher Jonathan Sanchez for a straight up trade. The Mets need pitching, with Johan Santana’s future as doubtful as Bartolo Colon’s claims that he didn’t use ahem, PEDs. It’s doubtful that the Giants will throw a package around first base prospect Brandon Belt, not when he’s already better than Aubrey Huff. They say Brian Wilson has awesome powers. He already made his dolphin call to Beltre Beltran. Let’s see if it works.
• The Philadelphia Phillies may have Phour Phucking Aces — and while that sounds like a Vietnamese restaurant, it’s better than the dogs the Phillies serve as its hitters. Ryan Howard has regressed, Chase Utley isn’t a 100 percent, and Raul Ibanez, 88, can’t string together back-to-back games of six RBIs. Beltran offers a quick solution, and while he’ll amount to a two-month rental, GM Ruben Amaro knows that he’s sitting on a wide-open window. A bat like Beltran’s, and his .900 plus OPS, will push Philadelphia deeper into the playoffs, towards a second title in three years. Led by Sandy Alderson, the Mets are not beholden by the almost counter-logical perception of not dealing within the division. A package around Domonic Brown has already made the Phillies front runners for Beltran’s services. Phuck the Phuture. When you’re a bat away from a title, you do it, no matter the price. Beltre Beltran is a switch hitter, while Brown, like most of the Phillies, are left handed. Makes too much sense to pass up.
• The Red Sox paid $70 million and five years of maddening apathy to win the 2007 World Series. While they need a quality pitcher, the absence of anything approaching the sort short of Ubaldo Jimenez could prompt Goy Wonder Theo Epstein to make a run at Beltran, who’ll replace J.D. Drew’s dead bat and suddenly bad eyesight in right field. While Boston has no top prospect like Brown, or a major league standout like Sanchez, they can pull together a Rizzo* and offer a package of prospects centered on 1B Lars Anderson, OF Josh Reddick and SS Jose Iglesias. Who cares, they’ll just sign Jose Reyes.
• The Atlanta Braves always have good pitching prospects, I’ve got a feeling they grow em off peach trees or pick em off Billionaire Ted’s mustache. A deal revolving on Brandon Beachy will almost make them favorites. Problem is, Atlanta will have to keep Derek Lowe. And even with the need for a big bat, not even Beltre Beltran will assure the Braves of making it past the NLCS.
• The Texas Rangers are long shots. While they have the prospects to make a good fit, they already have the best offense in baseball, making it a tad bit of an overkill to augment an already killer row of hitters. GM Jon Daniels will be looking for a pitcher, and will likely make a play for Heath Bell or Mike Adams. But if the Rangers do get Beltre (oh, wait. They already have Adrian Beltre. That’s why they’re on a 13-game winning streak ((whoops. The Angels just made a comeback. Game’s not over it’s 1 a.m. Eastern Time, but even then, the Rangers clobbered Dan Haren))) Beltran, and then flip David Murphy, opposing teams may as well hammer their pitchers’ elbows and send them out to Bartolo Colon’s “doctor” post haste.