Just a bit outside

If there’s one thing in fantasy baseball I’ve totally bought into in real life, it’s that you never overpay for a closer. I’ve always ended that statement with a caveat, except when you’re talking about Mariano Rivera, and the New York Yankees, because they can afford to spend on a one-inning showcase.

But I was on to something different this year, testing out a principle that a team can eventually win with a just-mediocre pitching staff, as long as it’s buttressed by a good No.1 No.2 is a luxury, which is why I waited until Adam Wainwright to sooth my sudden to urge to gamble, coming off Tommy John surgery, to approximate that. So far, my team can live without him. 

Silly me. I thought, well since I’m cycling starting pitchers like the real life Yankees, I might as well get stability in a spot I’ve often neglected in the draft but scouted with obsession. Go ahead. That goes with late-night, pre-hangover or red-eye bacon with maple syrup and a bunch of melted butter on top, pushed down with black coffee and water. it’s a shameful ritual, but instead of whipping my dick out online, I scout relief pitchers. It’s an, um, it’s a hobby. But if I were transposing some of those observations at the starter’s level, going by the logical theory that hitters control the game’s outcome more, I better draft the surest thing — Mariano Rivera.

I drafted him too high, the second pitcher I picked after Felix Hernandez, and I talked myself into not just the saves part, which I don’t give a shit about, but his skewing averages on WHIP, ERA, K/9 and all that. Plus, on a nets save league, Rivera hardly blows ‘em.

Stability achieved until he was taken to a Kansas City doctor. And there goes that investment. 

Thankfully, I had David Robertson, and if you’ve lost Rivera like I do, so should you. 

Robertson was owned in 46 percent of leagues, a surprisingly high number for a setup man with little to no saves chances. And it wasn’t like he was drafted on some sort of macabre premise of Mariano’s demise, although guys if you’ve sacrificed a chicken for Mo’ to tear his ACL, that’s messed up (the Red Sox fan in me says, all it takes is live chickens? Where do I send the checks? Shit I’d slit their throats. They were created for food, end of story. OK, I concede cock fighting too, but that’s it). 

But other problems have developed over a short amount of time. Heath Bell and Carlos Marmol have been demoted. Scott Downs may be losing time, at which point and given his non-keeper status, drop him already. I did before he got hurt, for Washington’s Hector Rodriguez, who though owned by 73 percent of teams, was slept on in my league. James Bowman, manager of Bowman’s Bastards, stole perhaps the steadiest reliever in baseball, Fernando Rodney, in the same week. Rodney’s pretty much been snapped up, well before the failure of closers, three who join the ranks of Ryan Madson, Brian Wilson, Andrew Bailey, Matt Thornton, Sergio Santos and other closers who were drafted or owned before their usefulness was served. 

Do not commit to a closer. As a fantasy owner, you’re better off being cut-throat about your closers, but not to the point of one game, If Bell is shitting bricks, cut him. Ditto Marmol. Santos is worth a gamble, and so is Bailey, that is, if your roster can handle (or care) about it. 

But here’s some other replacements:

Addison Reed: He was a favorite to win the closer’s job after Sergio Santos was traded, but the hard=throwing phenom is now getting saves opportunities via natural selection. He’s healthy, and striking out batters with a 12 K/9 rate. There’s some instability in his role, but his peripherals should alleviate some of what you’ll lose in saves. 

Alfredo Aceves: He was picked up, and then dropped and given up for dead, as owners should when a closer with no real hold on the job falters. But he’s throwing 97 mph and striking out batters at a 10 K/9 rate. Pick him up, if you haven’t, and don’t look at his whole season. He’s on a hot streak and is comfortable working as a two-pitch hard thrower. 

Brett Myers: He’s already owned in 73 percent of leagues, but is still available in our league. I’ve had him and dropped him a couple of times, but am comfortable with my relief scenario to pass. I could sleep on it and two days later change my mind but for now … 

Pedro Strop: The hard-throwing O’s reliever has the stuff to replace Jim Johnson, but his other stats minus net save opportunities make him an early wager. 

Rafael Soriano: Robertson is the OBVIOUS candidate, but the Yankees may be better served with him pitching in the eighth, only because it’s the most difficult innings in real-life baseball. Soriano has a power arm, and has been pitching well enough. He’s also making more money, and was brought in as an emergency replacement like Rivera. He may be a better pitcher as a closer, mentally. He’s always had the stuff. Then again, you can always hope he gets traded to the Rays. 

Edward Mujica or Mugica or whatever, Edward Magic Marker: Like the real life Marlins, you’d be scraping the bottom, and just in case Alana of Figgins for VP is still reading, yes I’m trash talking you (we play each other this week so …). Why spend on a fat ass who didn’t want to leave San Diego in the first place when you got Edward Magic Marker for free! Yes, his ERA is subpar for a reliever (3.00 plus, and really I don’t care), but his K/9 is Asian Mall prices low (5 or something per 9), his WHIP ain’t that tidy *(really, look it up, this is a free blog, go for it once in a while), and blah blah. But he’s more stable than Bell, and he’ll get saves opportunities he won’t blow, at least not to the rate Bell has. Think Doug Jones. Think Middle. Think Mugica, Mujica Edward Magic Marker. 

Great. Closer Andrew Bailey won’t see the ninth inning until at least July after undergoing thumb surgery. The two-time all star closer and a former rookie of the year was acquired from the Oakland A’s in a five-player package that also sent RF Ryan Sweeney to the Red Sox for Josh Reddick and others. 

I’d be worried otherwise, but it’s clear that GM Ben Cherington isn’t a big fan of overspending for the ninth inning role. 

Those with PTSD over the misguided bullpen by committee employed by the newly hired Theo Epstein in 2003 should be assuaged: yeah, the Red Sox probably had better relievers in 2003, but that’s like saying “today, my microwavable burrito is evenly warmer than yesterday’s.” See, a microwavable burrito is a microwavable burrito, the same way a relief pitcher is a relief pitcher — something failed in the process, so you’re making the best of it. Whether the microwave evenly distributes heat across all layers depends on how that shit spins THAT day. You’d expect uniformity, but a production line of knockoff iPads in China would come to those results faster than any major league team could with failed starters. 

There are options, possibly better ones, to replace Bailey, who’s unlikely to close when he returns. Just a hunch. 

Mark Melancon was so-so during his first tour of duty in New York, but he’s also an extreme ground ball pitcher, keeping more than 54 percent of his pitches down. He’s the obvious choice because he has closing experience.

Daniel Bard will get a chance to start, even though initial Spring Training results should have back in the bullpen. 

This has happened before, when Epstein and Co. replaced an injured and highly ineffective Keith Foulke with Jonathan Papelbon, whose previous MLB experience at that point was minimal as a September call up. Unlike Bard, Pap had actually started at the Major League level, and was supposed to be a starter before a flimsy shoulder forced Boston to get creative. The second time around, need and success had kept Papelbon in the ninth inning, after a short dalliance with starting.

The Red Sox dragged Bard this far, and while Bobby Vader gritted his teeth and told the media he was satisfied with Bard’s latest outing — a high strikeout, high walk game that saw a ton of runners scoring — Bard should still get his shot. He’s more valuable to the Red Sox as a starter, and if he figures it out presents a low-cost alternative that should keep Boston from relying on free agent fat busts like John RLackey,

Bard might end up closing anyway, because that was the role he was groomed for after imploding as a starter in Triple A. But it would be a shame to waste his spring preparation, where he was stretched out to maximize what he can do for a team built on the cheap.

 If I cared any more for a closer spot not filled by the immortal Mariano Rivera’s label, I’d outline a list of replacements. Cherington will find something quick. 

Expect more from new Red Sox GM Ben Cherington. 

He hinted as much Wednesday, in a press conference announcing the completion of the five-player swap that landed coveted closer Andrew Bailey. 

“We’re going to continue to work,” said Cherington about the team’s pursuit of starting pitching. “We’re actively considering and looking at starting pitching options also, but we haven’t found one yet where we feel like the acquisition cost is the right one. That doesn’t mean that it won’t come. It just hasn’t come yet.”

This from a man whose only trade on his short resume prior to taking over Boston’s player decisions in fall was being part of the GM-by-committee that traded Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez for Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell.

Cherington authored what appears to be a masterstroke when he got rid of a redundancy, Josh Reddick, for a much cheaper, and younger, version of Jonathan Papelbon. 

Current Cubs GM Theo Epstein has a reputation for hording prospects, even though that’s not the case. He traded Justin Masterson, David Murphy, Kason Gabbard, Kelly Shoppach, Andy Marte, Anthony Rizzo and Casey Kelly, for immediate help. 

Sure, he’s hung on to keepers, and regretted letting Hanley Ramirez go unprotected. He was ruthless in dispensing with prospects to fill a pressing major league need. 

Cherington is even more ruthless, and trading Jed Lowrie and Reddick isn’t the end of it. 

Think big, and Boston’s biggest need is a starter. It sure as hell wouldn’t overpay for one because John Lackey and Daisuke Matsuzaka ended up as blown investments. 

Cherington has a couple of coveted prospects. catcher Ryan Lavarnway and shortstop Jose Iglesias among them. Throw in a Ryan Kalish — wait, you don’t really think Cherington would acquire a left handed platoon right fielder so it could give Kalish minutes. 

Sweeney may be a below replacement level player, and he’s developing into a mighty unfine slap hitter, but he also plays excellent defense at right. He also gets on base, and despite his massive flaws, is a proven bet to be Ryan Kalish. 

The Red Sox wouldn’t do bad by keeping Lavarnway and Iglesias, two imperfect prospects young enough to improve. 

Lavarnway is an all-hit catcher, a poor man’s Mike Napoli. Defense at catcher is overrated in the American League anyway, and especially for a power-based team like the Red Sox. Even though Lavarnway projects as a designated hitter in the long run, I’m not sure he’s that bad of a catcher the way you hear people talk about his defense like it just spread the clap. 

Iglesias already has a major league glove. His defensive instincts are sharp, and he projects to be an Omar Vizquel-type defender, a sort of all-glove, no-hit vacum down the middle. I say let him play short, because the Red Sox are loaded anyway. 

Besides, the alternatives for the two, including Mike Aviles at short, backed up by Nick Fucking Punto, and Kelly Shoppach catching more games, isn’t a better proposition. I’d rather see what Kalish can do at the major league level before committing to someone who, at 27, has struggled offensively the past three seasons. 

The easy solution would be to go after Hiroki Kuroda or Roy Oswalt, both of whom could be had for one-year deals. I’m not sure if Boston’s even OK with the idea of paying either player $13 million. Teams have now perked interest on the two older, but effective veterans, largely because of the quality that can be had on a one-year deal. 

Here’s hardly a Ken Rosenthal moment though:

Expect the Red Sox to go hard after Matt Garza, and then moving on to Gavin Floyd or some other cost controlled, above-average pitcher you now have to pay through the nose to acquire. 

Garza won’t be cheap, and there’s already a bidding war between Boston, the Toronto Blue Jays and the New York Yankees. Both the Jays and the Yankees have better prospects, and Epstein is supposedly prioritizing starting pitching, the one position he’s most anxious to shore up. 

He’s already done well given the short time he’s had in Chicago, acquiring cost controlled Travis Wood for a good reliever in Sean Marshall, who’s a reliever nonetheless. He also picked up Andy Sonnastine, non-tendered by the Tampa Bay Rays. He might get a crack at starting in the National League. 

Garza is Epstein’s hottest trade chip, and he’s almost got nothing past him. No one will pay a premium for Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Zambrano, and the Cubs might have to kick in more than half for any team to take on the remaining years of two questionable veterans past their prime. 

If Epstein wants pitching, the Yankees and the Jays have it. 

Toronto is one pitcher away from making a serious run at winning the AL East, or at least back-dooring into the postseason via the double Wild Card. GM Alex Anthopolous has a collection of young pitchers, though none of them are major league ready quite yet. 

The Yankees will have a high price, and not just because of any sort of gamesmanship. If Epstein’s going to completely burn his bridges with Boston, he might as well get Dellin Betances AND Manuel Banuelos.

The Red Sox have no pitchers close to being major league ready, and only one, Anthony Ranaudo, has registered a blip among the best young starting pitching prospects. Theo obviously has an in — he drafted most of these guys — just emerging from Rookie Ball. 

Apparently, the A’s weren’t really after Reddick so much as pitching prospect Raul Alcantara, 19. He still hasn’t reached Double A, and is so far off anything can happen, and failure is still too real. 

Will Epstein gamble his only trade chip, the only guy who can accelerate the Cubs’ rebuilding masterplan, for pitchers far off, and some major league ready, position players that, though rare as catchers and shortstops are, aren’t more valuable than starting pitchers?

He does Boston compensation. 

I’m sure Cherington will be willing to call it quits if he does get Garza. The Sox weren’t joking when they wanted Garza, battle-tested in the AL East, as compensation. There is genuine interest, and the recent extension John Danks received makes it possible for Boston to secure an extension along that range before Garza becomes a free agent. They’d have to buy out one year of arbitration, but Boston is getting a quality right hander who piles on velocity with durability. 

He’s no ace, just as Gio Gonzalez and Trevor Cahill weren’t. But he’s above average, and that’s something Boston desperately needs if it’s to exploit the remaining prime years of Papi, Youk, Beckett and Carl Crawford. 

Teams that acquire closers, that go out of their way to get a sure ninth inning option, aren’t crossing through a bridge year. 

Boston’s trying to compete for a World Series, while erasing the bitter taste left by Game 162 of the 2011 season. 

Maybe they’re one starter away. Garza’s the best* option, so they might as well go all out for him. 

*We’re both delusional if we think the Garza offer will ever fetch Felix Hernandez. It won’t. Our kids, our kids aren’t that good. 

If there’s one market inefficiency Billy Beane knows about too well, exploiting the high price for young, club controlled pitchers for a good haul of even younger prospects. 

While that market won’t dampen anytime soon, the price of relief pitching, specifically the ninth inning saves guy, has bottomed out. 

Beane traded closer Andrew Bailey, 27 and a two-time all star and former rookie of the year, in a five player deal that involved OF Josh Reddick as a center piece. Considering that the Toronto Blue Jays acquired Sergio Santos for a Double A pitcher with control problems, it’s obvious that closers aren’t worth much, regardless of age and remaining years under cost-controlled rookie scale deals. 

Beane and White Sox GM Kenny Williams could have held onto their young closers, at least until July, when the market overpays for relief pitchers. Instead, acting during Winter has suppressed the the worths of ninth inning type free agents, including Ryan Madson, Brad Lidge and Francisco Cordero. 

With Boston out of the way, there are but a few teams in genuine need of closers. Here’s who’s left, and what the future could hold for them. 

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The Boston Red Sox upgraded its bullpen the cheap way, sending a replacement level, platoon-type outfielder for a two-time all star closer.

The Red Sox acquired closer Andrew Bailey from the Oakland A’s for outfielder Josh Reddick, straight up. Suddenly, one of the glaring weaknesses that led to the biggest September collapse in baseball history has been converted into a strength. 

Bailey, 27, is under club control until 2015, and will be arbitration eligible for the first time. He satisfies Boston’s desire to improve without busting the salary cap.  The 2009 rookie of the year is set to make about $2.5 million, about an $8 million discount from Jonathan Papelbon, who signed as a free agent with the Philadelphia Phillies in November.

While he has a reputation for being injury-prone, he threw 41 innings last year, Bailey is regarded as a semi-elite closer who could get better, if only he could get healthier. He posted ERA / WHIP / adjusted ERA of 3.24 / 1.104 / 126, all career highs. In his three-year career, he has lines of 2.07 / 0.954 / 226, and could be that pitcher again, if he stays healthy. 

It didn’t help that Oakland threw him out there for 83.1 innings in his rookie season, and injuries limited him to about 80 innings the past two seasons. If there’s a team that can keep him healthy, however, it’s Boston. The Red Sox took great care of Papelbon, never letting him go beyond 70 innings in his six years in Boston. Playing for a team with a great offense will also help him stay healthy, because he won’t be used as much as he was used in Oakland. 

But there’s some good news, too. His 8.9 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 is around his career averages, and his stuff appears to have not diminished. He’s also entering his peak years, cost-effective, and has a slightly higher career groundball rate than Jonathan Papelbon. Both are considered fly ball pitchers, however, with Bailey not as hard of a thrower as Papelbon, although the difference is minimal. He does rely on a sick cut fastball and carves out a curveball from time to time. 

His peripherals are also comparable to Papelbon’s, with a career 2.74 FIP and a 3.60 xFIP. What’s concerning is that his fly ball to home run ratio isn’t much of an improvement from Papelbon, despite playing in a pitcher friendly park. 

A relief pitcher’s performance is hard to predict, and Bailey has been on a downslide the past three seasons. But if you’re gambling on a reliever being a closer, Bailey and those like him, including Sergio Santos of the Toronto Blue Jays, are smart bets. 

He’s cost-effective, has got above average strikeout rates, and throws really, really hard. 

That’s all a team can ask for. 

Pretend for now that Daniel Bard and Alfredo Aceves are going to start when Opening Day comes. 

OK, maybe that’s a bit far fetched, but if the Red Sox can’t squeeze the money for not one, but two starting pitchers, then Bard and Aceves would have to go to the rotation. 

That leaves a gigantic hole in the back of the ‘pen, a source of instability that led to September’s collapse that has yet to be addressed.

It just can’t end with Mark Melancon, not when the ‘pen currently looks like this: Bobby Jenks, Franklyn Morales, Scott Atchison and Matt Albers. 

P.U. 

And that’s why there’s a scramble, because manager Bobby Valentine loves his pitching matchups and manages like an NL lifer would, letting the game go in the first six innings before strategizing in the seventh. 

With what, Atchison, Albers and Melancon? Please. 

I’m not saying Melcancon can be a closer, but his stuff is hard enough, and drifts downward at a 50 percent rate, to make it a reality. 

It doesn’t appear like Boston’s going after Ryan Madson, unless he decides to take a one-year rebound offer, the so-called pillow contract that Adrian Beltre signed, for one year and $8 million. But your choices must always begin with the best available arm:

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