I couldn’t shake off ex-Blue Jays’ pitcher Shaun Marcum’s comparison of Vernon Wells to Hall of Famer Andre Dawson.
The similarities between Wells going into this season, and Dawson walking out on Montreal and into MVP glory with the Chicago Cubs, are eerie.
With slight differences, Dawson and Wells had essentially the same careers up until their 31st birthday. Their stats were similar — and according to Baseball-Reference, Wells’ most similar batter by age 31 was Dawson. Both played in turf and in Canada. Both suffered through premature declines before surging back — again at 31. At 32, both were out of turf and the Great White North. Both are free swingers with below average on base percentages. If a pitcher throws, they swing.
Dawson burst out to big league prominence with the Expos as a 22-year-old five tool outfielder. He had both speed and power, going on to average about 25 home runs and around 30 steals a season, while playing most of his home games on artificial grass, a fact that’s been blamed on his balky knees.
While Wells was first called up as a 20-year-old, he was a part-time major leaguer before finally sticking at 23. Wells was slower than Dawson, but he was billed as a five-tool outfielder who unlike Dawson, hit 100 or more home runs in his first two full seasons, while averaging around 25 or so home runs, but stealing 10 or more bases three times, with a career high 17.
At 28, Dawson had his biggest year in Montreal, batting .299 with career highs in home runs (32), RBIs, (117, and his first 100 RBI season) and hits (an NL leading 189). He was an All Star, Gold Glove Winner and finished second in MVP balloting.
At 27, Wells had another big year, hitting .303 with 32 home runs, 17 stolen bases, 106 RBIs and 40 doubles, making the All Star team, winning the Gold Glove and even received some back-end MVP votes. It wasn’t his best season, but it was enough to convince Toronto to blow up its payroll, extending Wells for seven years at $126 million.
Both suffered precipitous declines in the next couple of years.
In the next three years, Wells’ home run totals would top out at 20 and bottom out at 15. He would hit his lowest batting average, .245 in ‘07. He couldn’t drive in 100 runs.
Dawson, while still a Gold Glove caliber outfielder, batted .248 and .255, with 17 and 23 home runs and a career low 13 stolen bases.
But at 31, both players got a boost. It wasn’t up to par with their past performance, but it was much better, a return to All Star caliber play, if a bit short on the dominance both showed as youngsters.
Dawson’s OPS increased back to .815, after two seasons of .700s, and while his home run totals remained static at 20, he increased his doubles total, walked more, and struck out less. Despite his worsening knee condition, he stole 18 bases again. Dawson’s OPS plus went up from 109 to 123.
Wells did the same last year, batting .273 with 88 RBIs, 31 home runs, while hitting 40 doubles, his most since what perhaps was his statistically most dominant season in 2003. His OPS plus went up from 86 to 127.
Clearly, Wells was a better player, totals wise, that Dawson at 31 — although the differences are negligible.
But can he repeat Dawson’s masterpiece at 32, the very season that got him into the Hall of Fame to begin with?
Dawson was rejuvenated when he moved to Chicago. His knees benefited from playing on natural grass, Wrigley Field was home run friendly, the fans were passionate. Even though he was playing for a worst team, Dawson smacked a career high 49 home runs and recorded a career high 137 RBIs, by far his best totals ever. He was the National League MVP for a last place team.
But here’s where the differences come in, and that’s not counting the blank check that Dawson handed to the Cubs.
While Wells may have been bothered by injuries, none of them were related to turf. Dawson’s power numbers spiked in Chicago because of Wrigley’s hitter friendly confines. Wells is moving to a bigger stadium, in a city notorious for marine layers that keep balls in play.
Olympic Stadium in Montreal had become Dawson’s enemy. Judging by his road splits, Toronto’s Rogers Centre is Wells’ only friend.
This isn’t to say Wells will stoop lower than Gary Matthews Jr.’s level, and yet there’s a chance of that happening — however small. He’s a professional, so look for him to adjust to his new home park. But as far as 49 home runs and 137 RBIs go? That’s a dream not even $21 million over four years can’t buy.
Wells however could approach Torii Hunter’s first year in Anaheim, batting around .278 with 21 home runs and 80 RBIs. That’s not bad, actually. But it’s still not worth $81 million.
Sorry. Andre Dawson Part 2: Summer of ‘87 is not hitting theaters this summer.