By today, even by the time this queu gets posted, Washington Nationals third baseman Ryan Zimmerman would have signed an extension that will keep him in the Capitol through his peak years.
Or not.
But Zimmerman had already set a deadline for today, although both sides appear to be very close.
It goes without saying that Zimmerman is a better option to plunk a multi-million year contract on, compared to the Prince Fielder debacle Washington GM Sam Rizzo almost got himself into.
That’s not to say it’s a good idea.
In all probability, it wouldn’t be smart to keep Zimmerman past 2013, when his current deal expires.
This season, he’ll make $12 million, before getting a raise, with his take up to $14 million in his final year. That’s a lot of money, but not when you consider that in back-to-back years, Zimmerman accounted for 14.0 fWAR on a very bad team. Divide that two, and he hit 7.0 plus fWAR, an MVP type performance.
Rizzo knows this. He knows Zimmerman, unlike Fielder, or Albert Pujols for that matter, is a slugging third baseman, a commodity in short supply right now. A deep young pitching staff, a competent bullpen, the right mix of veteran and elite young talent, with a third baseman who hits like a first baseman, and you can see why Washington’s days as the NL East’s doormat is over.
It could be wiser to see what Zimmerman can do coming off an off-year before hastily signing him to a mega-extension the Nats might soon regret — though I doubt it with the kind of depth its got going, in its farm and ownership’s pockets.
Zimmerman was no better than the San Diego Padres’ Chase Headley last year, and Headley hit just four home runs.
In 2011 here’s Zimmerman’s standard slashes:
.289 BA / .355 OBP / .443 SLG / 118 adjusted OPS with 2.3 bWAR
Headley’s slashes:
.289 BA / .374 OBP / .399 SLG / 120 adjusted OPS
Both suffered through injury-marred seasons, though Headley, while promising, has never exhibited the Franchise Cornerstone qualities that has followed Zimmerman after breaking out with the Nats as a 22-year-old wunderkind.
He’s the National Treasure, in the sense that no one really knows, but those in the know, that he exists. He might as well not be there, and only those with the special spectacles of PAID FANTASY BASEBALL know a steal when they see one.
Except Zimmerman has been injury prone the past two years. Rizzo is betting on everything that happened before 2011. In 142 games in 2010, Zimmerman hit 25 home runs while batting .307 and a 142 adjusted OPS.
Fair enough. Those are close to cornerstone levels.
But let’s compare him to someone who just received a major extension of his own, last year.
Ryan Braun took the extension Prince Fielder didn’t want, christening him among the the halls of the $100 million club.
Braun is an MVP who improved his once laughable defense in left. His personality is tied to his team’s, he won’t crumble as fast as Fielder, and he’s capable of a 30-30 season, good for flash and actual value.
Braun’s weighted batting average (wOBA)*, a more accurate gauge that throws on base skills and power in the mix, is .402 for his career. Last year, Braun hit .433, an elite level, as is his career average. Bill James has him projected for a .411 wOBA, still cornerstone type numbers.
*An above average batter will record around .350 wOBA. Carlos Pena of the Rays hovers around .360.
An even better extension was Colorado’s 10-year commitment to shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, who’s beloved by his home team, and is in the defensive-offensive shortstop in the mold of Cal Ripken Jr. It remains to be seen whether Tulo will reach Ripken’s numbers, and I personally doubt it, but those are lofty expectations anyway. He is however a power hitting shortstop in a league without anyone like him. He’s always been healthy, except for that time he broke his wrist in a freak accident. His glove his above average, and he could just be the most valuable position player, stats and Ben Zobrist aside.
His wOBA is .372, and while that’s below Braun’s, Tulo plays a premium position, and his glove more than makes up for whatever offensive edge Braun brings.
That brings us to Zimmerman’s career weighted batting average.
Get ready:
.358.
Carlos Pena is a better overall hitter than Zimmerman.
Really?
Well, what about last year, when he got hurt? That dragged his totals down.
Yeah. To a degree.
Last season, Zimmerman had a .307 wOBA, like you know, Chase Headley numbers.
The Nats are obviously paying for 2009 and 2010, when Zimmerman got 7.0 fWARs in back-to-back seasons. He hit 33 and 25 home runs, and played plus defense. As far as premier positions, a slugging third baseman would be second only to a slugging shortstop.
Zimmerman, ergo, is traditionally speaking, more valuable than Braun.
But his numbers say otherwise, even in the two seasons that will get him paid.
He had a .389 and .377 wOBA in 2009 and 2010 — decidedly better than Pena, but not quite Braun. And not quite the .393 wOBA that helped Tulo get his extension, in 2009, and the .408 wOBA he hit in 2010. The fuck, as a shortstop.
The Nats could be extending Zimmerman for all the right reasons:
Firstly,
He’s a homegrown star, the crown jewel, the first birth, of the once barren Nationals farm system. The fans love him. He’s their First Son. And he plays third base, quite well when healthy. He can give Washington Scott Rolen type two-way numbers in his peak years, without the bitching that Rolen shrugged off after STL.
It gets better.
Because he’s coming off a down season, Zimmerman will come cheap. He’s reportedly not even asking for Tulo money, which is still way lower than Prince Fielder’s burger money.
All in all, long term deals are a bad thing. But Zimmerman is Mr. Nationals. Give him what he wants.